Preview: Alabama football vs. Auburn: When the Tide is in control

How will Alabama’s offense be limited by an aggressively mediocre Auburn defense?

Auburn’s defense has performed admirably in 2023, despite their offense being at best lackluster. They are comfortably in the top half of college football with 21.5 points per game. The experienced secondary is preventing opposition quarterbacks from gaining more than 200 yards a game, and they have 27 sacks this year—a little above average, but nothing exceptional. However, their running defense has been a little more erratic, allowing 160 rushing yards at a rate of 4.4 yards per carry throughout the season, several of which can be big gains on quarterback keepers.

Ron Roberts is a highly experienced defensive coordinator in college football, having served in this role throughout the 1990s, albeit with mixed results. After leading Baylor to become one of the best defenses in the nation in 2021, he was fired just one season later for leading the team’s passing defense, which was ranked in the 80s. Either way, he employs a 3-3-5 strategy that is reminiscent of Alabama’s under Pete Golding. However, his defensive backs drop deeper into spot zones, emphasizing the need of stopping deep passes and assembling to make gang tackles on shorter passes.

And boy, did he ever hit his secondary. With great enthusiasm and the intention of punishing, they will leap onto screens and swing passes. However, this leaves a medium-range vulnerability (10–15 yards) in his coverages that a squad prepared to attack can repeatedly take advantage of.

Marcus Harris is a standout on the defensive line. He is the team leader in sacks (6) and tackles for loss (9.5), and at 295 pounds, he is still a threat as a pass rusher. He’s a veteran inside rusher who is flexible and almost as good as Justin Eboigbe of Alabama; both players are certain to be selected to the All-SEC team. Keldric Faulk, a 6’6″ 290 physical specimen and a top-100 prospect, is a true freshman who has been pressed into a starting role. Although there hasn’t been much output thus far, the athletic ability is present.

There are two of the conference’s best outside linebackers in the linebacker group. With 79 tackles, 5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, and a 67-yard score on a fumble recovery, Eugene Asante leads the club in tackles. The 220-pound senior is a quick-witted, high-energy athlete who just thrives at pursuing the ball-carrying player. Conversely, Jalen McLeod represents Auburn’s take on the Jack linebacker role. Prior to joining Auburn this season, he was an All-Sun Belt player at Appalachian State. He has 5.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss so far.

The strongest position group on the Auburn team and a seasoned bunch is the secondary. As a bit of a throwback to the 2000s, when strong safeties prowled the backfield with the intention of killing, safety Zion Puckett weighs about 230 pounds. Jaylin Simpson, a seasoned player who spent years playing rotational cornerback for Auburn before switching to safety and really hitting his stride this season, is his deep counterpart. Simpson, the team’s ballhawk, tops the group with four interceptions.

Keionte Scott, who plays nickel and is among the SEC’s best punt returners, has been a pretty good player. Outside, D.J. James leads the team in pass breakups with eight, while Nehemiah Pritchett has played the position for three years.

I believe Alabama’s offense can be frustrated by Auburn’s defense, which possesses many strong points. It will undoubtedly be a test of Jalen Milroe’s patience as it will be difficult for him to go bombs away with deep balls on them. Furthermore, their hostile demeanor in zones may result in a poor interception.

However, they have been vulnerable to QB runs the whole season, and against Alabama’s formidable offensive line, the lighter front will probably have trouble in any situation involving short yardage. In order to win, Alabama will ultimately need to attack the intermediate areas of the field with the passing game. Although Milroe has been focusing more on this area recently, it was almost nonexistent earlier in the season. For him, patience will be essential.

The DraftKings Sportsbook has Alabama favored by 13.5 points with an over-under of 47.5, or roughly a 31-17 result, in this match. I stated a few days ago that I believed Auburn’s offense will probably score no more than 17 points in this game. I’m going to follow the advice of the Vegas crowd and suggest that Alabama should score between 28 and 32 points in this one.

Auburn’s secondary has probably contributed to a slight slowdown in Alabama’s offensive output over the past three weeks, but ultimately Alabama’s tendency to give up those plays that lengthen drives will keep them moving forward enough to prevent things from getting too alarming.

The SEC title game of the day, the Iron Bowl, will kick off at 2:30 PM CT on CBS today. as is appropriate.

Roll Tide!