What Can They Prove? Against the Chiefs, Bill Belichick, Jerod Mayo, and the Patriots’ defense have a game to prove.

The defense will face its first real test on Sunday after suffering a 31-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 8.

Foxboro — Thankfully, the 2023 season is not quite over, as the Patriots are out of the postseason. With four games remaining, there is still hope for the season, but finding meaningful matchups on the final schedule is difficult.

This one: The Patriots defense, which has been dominant since Week 10 but hasn’t faced an even above-average offense in that time, will be put to the test by the Chiefs’ offense. Additionally, the Patriots’ defense’s performance on Sunday against quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and head coach Andy Reid might have a lasting effect on the team.

It is accurate to say that the 2023 Chiefs are not as productive or efficient as previous iterations. In terms of expected points added (EPA) per play, the Chiefs are currently below the top three for the first time since Mahomes took over as the starting quarterback in 2018. For the first time since 2017, they are ranked outside of the top six in terms of yards and points.

However, the Chiefs remain one of the top five opponents the Patriots defense has played this season, even after the Chiefs’ troubles to replace Tyreek Hill in the offense have caught up to Mahomes and Reid.

The Chiefs rank fourth in DVOA and seventh in EPA per play. Among quarterbacks, Mahomes is third in total PFF grade, sixth in EPA per play, and fourth in QBR.

This would be a record-breaking season for the offensive on any other team. People are wondering what’s gone wrong for the Chiefs.

In terms of EPA per play against this season, the Patriots defense is ranked 12th overall, but they have been second since Week 10. They have given up the fewest points in the NFL during that time, only 44.
Though it’s probable that the Patriots defense made a big improvement in Germany for Week 10, it’s also important to take the opposition into account. The backup quarterbacks for the Colts, Giants, and Steelers were all starting. The Chargers’ wide receivers missed six passes from Justin Herbert’s passes in Week 13.

In terms of EPA per play this season, the Chargers, Colts, Steelers, and Giants are ranked 17th, 19th, 25th, and 31st, respectively. They don’t make up a strong squad.

The defense will face its first real test on Sunday after suffering a 31-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 8.

How the Patriots defense plays this season is irrelevant in and of itself. Right now, the club is only playing for pride and a draft position. However, the decisions the team must make this summer may also depend on how the defense performs in the remaining quarter of the season.

The first decision to be made is whether to retain Bill Belichick as head coach. This week, Tom E. Curran of NBC Sports Boston revealed that a decision was made after the Patriots lost 10-6 to the Colts in Germany that Belichick would not be retained.

“When they came out of Germany, conversations I had that week made it very clear that a decision was made,” Curran said on “Arbella Early Edition.” “They were going to play out the string, and at the end of the year, there would be a parting of the ways, for a variety of reasons.”

Belichick was asked if it was his understanding that owner Robert Kraft will not ask him to be back next season.

“I’m getting ready for Kansas City,” Belichick said Wednesday. “That’s what I’m doing.”

But the Patriots’ primary struggles this season have come on offense and through personnel. Belichick has long been considered a defense genius. He would have little reason for reaching an agreement to reduce his power in the organization, but in an ideal world, there’s value in retaining Belichick and his defensive dominance but having him give up front-office decision-making, especially as it relates to offense.

And if the Patriots can shut down the Chiefs the same way they’ve neutralized the Colts, Chargers, Giants and Steelers, then it shows that Belichick still has it on the defensive side of the ball.

There’s also the decision to make on linebackers coach Jerod Mayo, whom Kraft called in March, “definitely a strong candidate to be the heir apparent” to Belichick.

It feels strange to promote an assistant on a team that went 3-10 to head coach, but Mayo’s defense, which he helps lead with Belichick and co-linebackers coach Steve Belichick, has not been to blame this seaosn.

“Hopefully, as you guys all know, one day I want to be a head coach,” Mayo said Tuesday in a video conference. “Where that is, I don’t know. But at the same time, I would say I have a lot of love for New England. I have a lot of love for the fans, the people around the building, and my family, they love it here, as well.

Thus, it would be fantastic if I could remain here and advance throughout my professional life. However, we’ll see.

Again, regardless of the result of the game, Mayo’s case to be a head coach is only strengthened if he assists the Patriots in shutting down the Chiefs.

However, Sunday’s game will determine whether the Patriots’ defensive success over the previous five games is due more to skill and coaching than to a challenging schedule.

In the future, the Patriots need to win these games. What’s best for the team right now is a moral triumph that coincides with a real loss in the standings and an enhanced draft pick.